How to Use the 'Madness' to Your Benefit

Editor's note: It's easy to form biases in the market. But according to our colleague Greg Diamond, anything can happen... So it's best to leave those biases behind. In this piece – an updated version of the April 1 Ten Stock Trader Weekly Market Outlook – Greg details how to take advantage of market "madness"... and reveals why folks today need to be ready for any market environment.

Back in 2023, I made a bold call...

I predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would soon hit 50,000.

The Dow just hit 40,000 for the first time. And 50,000 is well within its sights... That's just another 25% rally from its current level.

It may seem far-fetched, but anything can happen in today's market.

And remember, unlikely market events tend to hurt the most people (at the worst time) when they do happen. That's why we need to be prepared for anything.

It takes an unbiased technical strategy, as well as discipline and even courage, to make bold calls... and get them right year after year. So I have no bias in either bullish or bearish directions.

Sure, my job requires me to pinpoint what the market is likely to do or not do...

But when things don't go as planned – which happens every year – I adjust to the market "madness." And I shift gears when necessary.

As a professional trader, it's my job to make money in any market environment – even if it doesn't align with long-options trading, which is the focus of my Ten Stock Trader service.

So today, I'll consider how one "bearish" technical scenario fits into the long-term bullish picture... And I'll explain why it could unleash the kind of market madness that options traders love to see.

Recently, I've been looking at things from a bearish perspective. Given that, how can I push a bullish prediction for the Dow?

These tricky market conditions might frustrate some investors, and that's understandable. But in the Ten Stock Trader service, we have the tools to navigate this environment...

I always look at trading through the lens of time and price. And while the 50,000 Dow price target is possible, it wouldn't be a straight line up.

That means we're bound to see some volatility – which is exactly what we need to trade options.

As a technical trader, I have to respect what the market is actually doing and adjust my strategy accordingly. That's no easy feat, either... It's uncomfortable to shift directions, but it's necessary for success.

And I'll always do what's needed to win.

I'll use a very simple chart to illustrate what I mean. It tracks the Dow from its March 2020 low through the present...

As you can see, the Dow breached the solid red line (which marked a key resistance level) late last year. It has kept rallying into new all-time highs.

My initial analysis indicated that the Dow would likely retest this breach back to one of the support levels (marked by the black dashed lines) and then rally. Obviously, this didn't happen, but it still could...

At the bottom of the chart, the blue arrow on the right shows that the Composite Index ("CI") recently hit a low that's associated with prior bottoms and rallies... This signals more upside ahead.

It also means we could get a correction, which would be good for options traders. I'd welcome the volatility.

On the other hand, this "boring" bull market could keep climbing... into the next set of important time factors I keep track of. I've marked them with the vertical black lines above.

These time factors are based on short-term and long-term cycles. And they mark key inflection points. The question is, will they be lows or highs to trade?

If support holds in the Dow, these will be important inflection points to watch in the short term. In the long term, however, we can rely on one of the simplest technical strategies for bull markets... Follow the trend until the end.

In short, the current trend in the Dow suggests it could hit 50,000... but not without plenty of market madness along the way.

So remember to leave your bias at the door. Anything can happen in this tricky market, and we need to be ready for all the possibilities.

Good trading,

Greg Diamond, CMT

Editor's note: Greg accurately predicted the 2020 and 2022 market crashes. Now, he believes many investors are about to be blindsided by a "May Surprise." This volatile event has the potential to destroy your wealth if you're not prepared. That's why Greg is sharing the details behind a strategy that could potentially double your money... in as little as a day. Click here to learn more.

Further Reading

Things can always go wrong in the market – especially during periods of volatility. That's why you need to understand when to play offense and when to play defense. Knowing the difference will help you make smart decisions... and avoid big losses... Read more here.

"Trading is a continuous learning experience," Greg writes. And it starts with building a focused trading mindset. Here are three steps you should take to help overcome both short- and long-term "hurdles"... Learn more here.