Stocks Are Extended... And That's a Good Thing

The postelection boom has been nothing short of incredible...

The S&P 500 Index was up nearly 6% in November, its best one-month return in a year. And stocks in just about every sector of the U.S. stock market have been moving higher.

Now, the major indexes have gotten stretched above their long-term trend. You might think that's a bad thing... But history disagrees.

Instead, this kind of broad boom is rare. And when it happens, we can expect the good times to continue.

Let me explain...

A bull market is good... But a broad bull market is even better.

That's when it isn't just a few stocks pulling the market higher, but a majority of stocks all soaring at once.

A broad boom means the market is healthy. And a healthy bull market can keep rising – no matter how crazy it might seem at the time.

That's the kind of boom we have right now. All three major U.S. stock indexes are rallying... And they all hit a rare extended level recently.

Specifically, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite Index, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all rallied more than 10% above their long-term trends last month.

To measure the long-term trend, we're using the 200-day moving average (200-DMA). That's just the rolling average of the past 200 daily closes. When stocks are above that average, they're in an uptrend.

Here's what the trend has looked like for the S&P 500 over the past two years. As you can see, stocks have been booming since the 2022 bottom...

The index entered a strong uptrend early last year. Now, though, we've gone a step further. The postelection rally has sent all three major indexes more than 10% above their 200-DMAs.

That's rare. It has happened less than once a year since 1990. And while you might think this is a sign of a slowdown ahead, history tells a different story.

Not only do stocks not tend to fall after extended runs like these, they usually outperform. Here are the S&P 500's gains after these setups since 1990...

As you can see, stocks aren't due for a slowdown. They're set to continue outperforming. It's surprising... but true.

Similar instances led to gains of 4.2% in six months and 11.8% in a year. That's solid outperformance versus just buying and holding. Plus, the market was up 90% of the time a year later.

The Nasdaq and Dow show similar outperformance after these occurrences. So according to history, this broad rally is exactly what we want to see as investors. It's healthy – and it has a great shot at continuing.

It's easy to nitpick a bull market. But if you had done that over the past two years, it would have cost you dearly. Don't make the same mistake now.

Stocks are soaring... But it's a broad, healthy boom. And according to history, the good times should continue in 2025.

Good investing,

Brett Eversole

Further Reading

"This is as healthy a bull market as we could hope for," Brett writes. One indicator shows every important area of the market has been rising this year. And a rally like this is a green light for investors to stay bullish right now... Learn more here.

"It feels like everyone is waiting for the stock market to turn over," Brett writes. Still, the market has continued to climb the Wall of Worry this year. And now that most of the election uncertainty is behind us, investors should stay optimistic – because the best time to make money is when the market is rising... Read more here.