Gold just broke above $2,000 an ounce. The metal is now just a few percent below an all-time high.
This should be big news. After all, gold was the talk of the town the first time it got close to $2,000 an ounce...
That was in 2011. You couldn't turn on the television without seeing an ad for gold... whether it was selling it to you as an investment or looking to buy your old jewelry.
Gold was in an investment boom... And everyone was on board. But today is much different.
Now, the metal is soaring – but hardly anyone cares. That's a good thing, though. It means prices can go much higher from here.
Let me explain...
Investors tend to flock to assets as prices rise. It's the most typical cycle in finance.
It begins with the bad times. Prices fall. Anyone who bought late in a boom loses big and throws in the towel. Others eventually follow suit, and sentiment washes out.
By then, the asset seems like it'll be dead money forever.
But then, prices begin to recover. No one believes it at first... But prices go up and up and up. Once the crowd sees the seemingly "easy money" stacking up, more folks return from the sidelines and push prices to new heights.
Eventually, there's no one left to buy, and prices peak once again. The inevitable decline begins... And the cycle starts anew.
That's typically the way things go. But here's the thing... Gold isn't following the playbook right now.
The metal is darn close to an all-time high. Yet investors aren't interested in owning it.
We can see it by looking at shares outstanding for SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). This is an exchange-traded fund. And that unique fund structure gives us a peek into the underlying sentiment for gold.
You see, GLD can create and liquidate shares based on investor demand. When folks love gold, and they flood into GLD to profit from it, the fund will create new shares. But when investors hate the metal and sell, GLD will lower its share count.
We'd expect to see shares outstanding near an all-time high today, given the metal's recent climb. But that isn't what's happening. Take a look...
Gold hit an all-time high and broke above $2,000 an ounce for the first time ever in 2020. Back then, investors were all over the trade. GLD's shares outstanding soared as folks poured money in.
But then, gold traded sideways. And nearly three years of dead money forced investors to move on. GLD's shares outstanding are down 26% since then.
That kind of decline made sense last fall, when gold was down a similar percentage from its 2020 high. But the metal has been on an absolute tear ever since.
It's up more than 20%... with a new all-time high in sight... but investors aren't buying.
This imbalance won't last forever.
Eventually, the age-old cycle will take hold again. Investors will notice gold's recent ascent... And they'll start buying.
That will push prices even higher. And higher prices will bring more folks in, perpetuating the cycle.
That means that even though gold is darn close to an all-time high, we haven't seen the biggest gains of this rally. This is likely the start of a multiyear boom... And that's why you need to consider owning the metal right now.
P.S. If you expect gold to rise, gold stocks are one of the best ways to maximize your profits. And if you want to learn more about gold and gold stocks, you should check out the Rule Symposium.
This annual event for commodities and resource investors is put on by Rick Rule, a legend in the space. You'll hear directly from mining companies and industry experts. I'll be speaking there as well this year... sharing everything I see in the metals markets, along with my favorite ways to profit.
The event is July 23-27 in Boca Raton, Florida. It's sure to be fun and informative... So if you're interested in attending, you can find the full details here.
"For nearly three years, gold bulls have been waiting... and waiting," Matthew Poltorak writes. Now, the metal's sideways march has broken into a rally. That's because a major tailwind for gold prices has appeared – and the gains aren't over yet... Read more here.
Last year, cash did the unthinkable. It improved portfolio returns. Now, a lot of investors expect it to do the same in 2023. But they're making a mistake – and missing a sentiment signal that can only happen near a market bottom... Get the full story here.