This Stock Market Rally Is Just Beginning

We're living through a period of historic market action...

Much like we saw during the COVID-19 pandemic, stocks recently crashed in record time... and then rebounded faster than anyone believed possible.

The S&P 500 Index jumped 18% in just 25 trading days. That handed investors about two years' worth of returns in just five weeks – a truly incredible result.

Importantly, history shows that this kind of rally only happens at major market bottoms. In fact, we have annual upside potential of 31%. So instead of worrying, we should be bullish.

Let me explain...

If you expected 2025 to be boring, you've been sorely disappointed. It has been nothing but hectic from day one.

That has created a painful and jarring ride for investors. No matter what assets you own, you've seen massive swings in value.

The good news is, the market action has been bullish in recent weeks. In addition to the S&P 500's powerful rally, it's now less than 4% from new all-time highs. Take a look...

Expect Big Returns After This Rare Signal

Stocks have been on a roller-coaster ride. But we can expect good things in the months and years to come.

That's because rallies like the recent one are rare. Beginning on April 8, the market jumped 18% in just 25 trading sessions.

We've only seen five similar setups since 1950. They all signaled fantastic buying opportunities... And four out of the five unfolded at generational bottoms. Take a look...

There's one clear takeaway from this table... You really want to own stocks after a rally like the one we just experienced.

Beyond that, there are a few more things worth noting...

First, the S&P 500's outperformance is impressive across the board. With 18.3% gains in six months and 30.5% gains in a year, we're looking at much better returns than we'd typically see in U.S. stocks. And there are no losing trades in sight.

I've also included two-year and five-year returns to show the index's massive outperformance in the longer term. It's something you don't usually find in these kinds of setups.

That's because, as time passes, we get closer to the typical long-term return... We tend to "approach the mean." But that isn't the case here.

A 97.1% gain over five years is about double what you'd expect from stocks over a typical five-year period. That's incredible. And it's only possible because four of our five examples were at generational bottoms...

We got this signal in 1974, at the end of a nearly decadelong bear market, and then again in 1982, after a similar drought. Since the turn of the century, 2009 and 2020 were the two best years to buy.

The only nongenerational bottom occurred in 1991. But even that was a darn good time to put money to work in the market.

In short, we've just lived through a momentous rally. But history says the good times are only beginning. Again, you really want to own stocks in times like these.

So don't worry right now. Instead, history tells us now's the time to buy.

Good investing,

Brett Eversole

Further Reading

"It's smart to be contrarian," Brett writes. According to one measurement, we're seeing the most negative sentiment since 2011. But history shows that means this is a darn good time to buy... Learn more here.

"Just because a stock has run up a lot, that doesn't necessarily mean it's too late to buy," Whitney Tilson says. Value investors often miss the true gems because they're busy looking in the bargain bin. But that mindset can keep them from some spectacular winners... Read more here.