Editor's note: Building wealth in the market is a lot less complicated than most investors realize. According to our founder Porter Stansberry, all it takes is mastering a few essential principles. In this essay, which was originally published in a 2013 issue of the Stansberry Digest, Porter shares the investment rules that he'd share with his children – and he explains how they can help lead you to long-term success...
Today, I want to tell you about a few of the most important "core" ideas I've discovered that can help make you a successful individual investor.
First and foremost, the simple reason most people will never acquire a significant amount of wealth is that most people lack the discipline to save money. It's really that simple. Think about how much money you earned last year after taxes. Think about how much you saved. Was it enough for you to meet your financial goals?
My recommendation is that you always save half of what you earn. That's what I've done my entire life. Now, understand, I count a lot of things as "savings." Real estate purchases, for example, aren't really investments at all. They're a form of savings.
Saving half of what you earn isn't impossible. I know, because I've done it... even early in my career when I was working as an entry-level analyst making $34,000 annually. I lived on a friend's sofa for two years. I drove a 20-year-old Honda Accord. Now, none of these things may be attractive to you... But the point is, it can be done if you make it your top goal.
If you don't, it's unlikely that you'll ever possess a significant amount of wealth. That's not what we write about in our newsletters. But it's a real, hard-core fact: Without capital, it's impossible to make good investments.
Here's a good rule of thumb... get completely out of debt (except, perhaps, for your primary mortgage) and save at least $50,000 in cash before you consider investing in securities (stocks and bonds). I can imagine the outrage I'll get for sharing this simple rule. People will complain that I'm only interested in serving "rich" investors.
Nevertheless, this is the advice I will give my sons, so it's the advice I will give you. The principle behind this idea is very important to understand: Until you've mastered the discipline of saving money, you have no realistic chance of developing the discipline to manage capital. For another – far more famous – perspective on this idea, try reading The Richest Man in Babylon by George Clason.
The No. 1 Mistake That Dooms Most Investors
Now, here's the bad news... Even if you develop the discipline to save a lot of capital, you are unlikely to succeed as an investor.
In my experience, the No. 1 reason most individual investors fail to achieve positive results is that they're totally unprepared to manage risk. So let me tell you as clearly as I possibly can: 90% of the outcomes in your investing career will have nothing to do with your investment selections.
Almost all of your returns will be dictated by asset allocation – how much of your portfolio you assign to categories like stocks, bonds, cash, and commodities – and how you manage risk.
Until you begin to rigorously allow your winners to run and always cut your losers, it will be nearly impossible for you to be successful. Consider your results for the past year. Then, ask yourself how much better off you'd be today if you had simply cut your losses based on a 25% trailing stop loss and had let your winners run... rather than selling to book a quick profit.
And keep your initial position sizes small. That way, no matter what happens, you can't suffer a catastrophic loss. In general, I recommend keeping no more than a few percent of your portfolio in your initial position sizes. That way, if something surprises you and goes wrong, it won't change what you eat for breakfast, nor will it ruin your investment returns for more than a quarter or two.
Unless you've been successful as an investor in securities for at least 10 years, I'd consider using trailing stops to be mandatory. Think of them like training wheels. They'll keep you from having any catastrophic wrecks.
Now... here's the last part to becoming more successful as an investor. Do your best to learn how to value a security.
A good way to teach yourself how to do that is to think of a business you know well and look up the annual report (Form 10-K) it filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Read it carefully – especially the notes at the end. Look at the financial statements. Figure out how the numbers correspond to the business activities. Once you've done this for two or three businesses, you'll be able to figure out how just about any business in the world works (except, perhaps, insurance companies, whose annual reports are ridiculously complex).
Once you've figured out how to look up the numbers, a final rule of thumb is to never pay more than 10 years' worth of cash profits, after all capital investments have been taken out. Understand, this is merely a guideline... but I'm certain that if you haven't been successful as an investor, the two most likely reasons for your underperformance are: 1) You suffered catastrophic losses, or 2) You've purchased too many expensive securities.
It's difficult to do well in stocks over time if you're buying them at expensive valuations. On the other hand, it's nearly impossible to lose money in stocks if you buy high-quality businesses at reasonable prices – especially if you're disciplined about managing risk.
If you apply these three rules to your portfolio, you'll be on your way to being a successful investor.
Regards,
Porter Stansberry
Editor's note: Porter's investing career is full of successful market predictions – most famously, in May 2008, he predicted that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would go bankrupt. But today, he's revealing the most controversial prediction of his career. He says one of America's largest institutions is about to collapse. And millions of investors are unprepared for what's coming... So don't get caught off guard.
Further Reading
"The market doesn't owe you anything, and you can't make the market give you anything," Porter writes. But a few time-tested rules can help investors outlast the market. They've held true for nearly seven decades – helping investors navigate the market and build lasting wealth.
To most investors, the market can feel a lot like a desert. There are few landmarks to guide you, and it's easy to get lost, fighting to survive. But no matter how harsh the conditions, you can avoid the "investment mirages" and find the path to lasting success if you have the right tools.