Editor's note: The recent volatility has spooked many investors. But according to our colleague Greg Diamond, the end of complacency isn't necessarily something to fear. In this piece – from a recent Ten Stock Trader Weekly Market Outlook – Greg explains why volatility can work to your advantage... and shares what he expects for stocks in the next few months.
Everyone seems to be trading these days... whether or not they actually want to.
Earlier this month, the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had their biggest drops since September 2022. The Nasdaq 100 Index lost more than $900 billion in value.
Volatility has picked up. And many investors pulled money out of the market at breakneck speeds.
But that doesn't mean buying opportunities have vanished. In fact, excellent trade setups are forming, thanks to this new surge of uncertainty.
So today – using technical analysis – I'll explain why we should prepare for great trading opportunities into the last few months of the year.
You see, volatility isn't just about stocks going down. It's about big swings in both directions... and knowing how to capitalize on them.
Many investors aren't used to big market moves. Up until a few weeks ago, they've mostly seen stocks go up this year. Those folks didn't know how to handle the downturn.
But we can profit from this kind of volatility... and continue managing our risk in a shaky market.
My message today is simple... I'm expecting more volatility for the rest of the year, starting next week.
We can see this with indicators developed by famous trader W.D. Gann...
Gann angles and time factors are popular technical tools with a long history. Traders use them to find support and resistance levels, anticipate tops and bottoms, and predict future price moves.
Lately, I've been focusing on the most important Gann time-factor window for 2024 – August 26 to September 13.
This is a much wider window than we usually see. And I'm expecting it'll be a major market inflection point – even bigger than what we've seen over the past few weeks.
I want to highlight one likely S&P 500 scenario based on what has already happened in the market... and what's likely to happen between late August and mid-September.
In this S&P 500 chart, I've used technical analysis to outline the low that's in place now and a high to trade – with the blue line showing probable moves from here...
You can see that the index topped out in mid-July and then bottomed earlier this month. It's now approaching new all-time highs again.
With a high into this time-factor window, this sets us up for a market inflection point and more volatility ahead. The probabilities suggest that a steep decline could unfold into late October... or just before or after the November election.
A chart like this might worry you at first. The bottom line is, we should expect more volatility ahead. Trading activity will surge. But that isn't a bad thing.
You can use both the highs and lows to your advantage, if you know what to expect. It's important to manage our investment risk... follow the price action into the August 26 to September 13 time-factor window... and keep our biases in check.
My research tells me we're approaching one of the best trading opportunities we've had in a long time...
So don't let the recent volatility keep you out of the market. This kind of opportunity doesn't come around often.
Good trading,
Greg Diamond, CMT
Editor's note: Greg accurately called the 2020 and 2022 crashes. Now, he's stepping forward to share an urgent warning. Greg believes a massive market move could begin around September 9... with the potential to upend the U.S. presidential election.
The key is, a specific strategy could turn this shake-up into the biggest moneymaking opportunity of 2024. You can find out exactly what Greg expects – and how he recommends you prepare – during our online briefing on August 27... Click here to learn more.
Further Reading
Understanding the past can help you profit in the future. This is the real basis of technical analysis. And it's how Greg was able to call the 2020 crash – even though the market's fundamentals looked fine... Get the full story here.
"Trading presents many hurdles," Greg writes. But with a few simple habits, you can learn to beat the main obstacles consistently – and make money over time. Here are three behaviors that can help you be a better trader... Read more here.