Why Fears of a 'Trade War' With China Are Overblown

The Weekend Edition is pulled from the daily Stansberry Digest.

Earlier this week, U.S. stocks fell following a new round of tensions between the White House and North Korea.

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump said that his highly publicized meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un next month "may not work out," following several recent threats from his regime.

A day later, the president made it official. As the Wall Street Journal reported...

President Donald Trump on Thursday aborted plans for a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as the White House considered a fresh round of sanctions on Pyongyang, citing "open hostility" from the North Korean regime.

While lamenting the cancellation – which he carried out without informing allies – as a "missed opportunity" and a "truly sad moment in history," the president held open the possibility that the summit could still take place.

He also said U.S. forces are "ready if necessary" and that he had spoken to South Korean and Japanese officials about a military response "if such an unfortunate situation is forced upon us."

The news was a sharp departure from recent weeks, when both parties had taken on more conciliatory tones.

On Friday, Trump did say that communication with North Korea continues – and that the meeting could still take place as scheduled. But he provided few details beyond that.

In the meantime, the Trump administration made a similar shift in its rhetoric on China...

Less than one week after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the prospect of a "trade war" was "on hold," tensions are rising again.

On Wednesday, Trump said he was "not satisfied" with the progress on trade talks so far. Then, on Friday, reports followed that the White House is now considering taking a "harder line" on trade with China.

As we've discussed, no one "wins" a true trade war...

It would be a net negative for both the U.S. and China, so we remain cautiously optimistic that cooler heads will prevail.

But we should also remind you that even if we're wrong and the situation escalates, it won't necessarily be the problem for Chinese stocks many folks assume.

Steve Sjuggerud's research shows it could be U.S. companies rather than Chinese companies that are hurt the most. In fact, most domestic Chinese companies have almost no dependency on the U.S. at all.

In short, a potential trade war is no reason to worry about Chinese stocks.

Of course, we know many folks aren't just worried about the implications of a potential trade war...

They're also worried that Chinese stocks could suffer in the coming "Melt Down" – the severe bear market both Steve and Stansberry Research founder Porter Stansberry expect to begin within the next year or two. On Thursday, we received an e-mail from reader Garrett S. that summarized this fear...

If the Chinese stocks are estimated to increase in value, how does this reconcile with the approaching bear market in the United States? Since the world economies are intertwined... won't this trigger mass amounts of people pulling money out of their market? And since Chinese stocks will now be included in the indexes, won't the Chinese market take a hit when the U.S. economy goes into downtrend?

In other words... do we honestly believe Chinese stocks can continue to go higher if U.S. stocks are crashing?

This is a valid concern... In fact, Steve felt it was so important, he decided to dedicate Thursday's entire DailyWealth issue to addressing it for all Stansberry Research readers.

In short, the answer isn't as "black and white" as you might assume...

First, it's important to remember why Steve first turned bullish on Chinese stocks...

As longtime readers know, a key part of his bullish thesis is index provider MSCI's 2017 decision to include Chinese stocks in its emerging markets index.

This decision represents a massive shift in the global financial markets. Hundreds of billions of dollars will be forced to move into these stocks over the next several years, even if U.S stocks eventually enter a bear market.

It's as close to a "sure thing" as you're likely to find in the world of investing... And it will provide a powerful tailwind for Chinese stocks, regardless of what else is going on in the global markets. (More on this in a moment.)

But this isn't the only reason Steve believes Chinese stocks can weather a severe bear market in the U.S...

You see, it has actually happened before. History proves that it absolutely is possible for Chinese stocks to rally even if U.S. stocks are crashing.

As he explained Thursday, both Chinese and U.S. stocks soared during the final three months of the last great "Melt Up" back in 2000... But that's where the similarities ended.

While the Nasdaq crashed beginning in March 2000, Chinese stocks kept going up. They soared 64% to all-time highs.

In fact, as Steve noted, the entire index of Chinese "A-shares" – stocks that trade locally on the Chinese mainland – has delivered triple-digit returns within 18 months three different times in the past dozen years.

Of course, Chinese stocks don't always go up when U.S. stocks go down...

But the important point to understand is that Chinese stocks have historically had a low "correlation" to U.S. stocks. And despite China's growing role in the global economy in recent years, its markets remain the least correlated to the U.S. of all the major stock markets today.

To Steve, the bottom line is simple...

History shows Chinese stocks often "zig" when the U.S. and other major markets "zag." Meanwhile, a true once-in-a-lifetime shift means hundreds of billions of dollars will have to move into these stocks over the next five years.

This is an incredibly bullish combination... And it makes Chinese stocks among the best investment opportunities in the world today.

Despite the huge returns his subscribers have earned in Chinese stocks over the past two years, Steve believes the biggest gains are still ahead...

That's because MSCI's shift hasn't actually begun yet. As longtime readers know, the decision was announced last June... But it doesn't take effect until this Thursday, May 31.

On that date, the first "wave" of money will begin to flow into these stocks... which means you still have a few more days to get your money there first.

Better yet, Steve has identified two stocks in particular that could absolutely soar once this shift begins... And he has prepared a free presentation to explain this time-sensitive opportunity in detail. Click here to read it now. (This link does not lead to a long promotional video.)


Justin Brill

Editor's note: Tens of billions of dollars are about to start flowing into two stocks in particular, which could send their share prices soaring almost immediately. That's why Steve just put together an urgent presentation to detail this incredible opportunity. But you must act fast... because the biggest gains start Thursday at 3:59 p.m. Get the details here.