In the blink of an eye, markets have moved from relative calm to earthshaking volatility...

Big day-to-day swings have become the norm since President Donald Trump announced tariffs last month.

Last week, we covered what back-to-back down days in April could mean for the market going forward. According to history, a 10%-plus fall over two days tends to signal we're near the market bottom.

And now, we've got another reason to think the bottom is in...

The S&P 500 Index had its third-best day since 1950 on April 9. And according to history, that means stocks might be done falling... and we could see a 20%-plus rally over the next year.

Let me explain...

History Points to Upside for the Stock Market in 2025

On April 9, stocks rallied 9.5% in a single day. That didn't happen for no reason...

They soared because Trump "called off the dogs," at least for a moment.

Specifically, Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause on nearly all of our trading partners. Tariffs should hold at 10% across the board as long as the pause continues. (He left China out of this reprieve, since it retaliated against the initial tariff announcement.)

The market had crashed on the initial news of global tariffs. The rates were higher than anyone had anticipated. So when Trump announced a pause, investors breathed a sigh of relief.

The S&P 500 started the day down. Then, the news broke... And prices soared. Take a look...

We've only seen two larger one-day rallies since 1950. Both were in October 2008, as the global financial crisis was setting in.

Now, it's worth noting that markets are still down overall since tariffs were first announced. But the sharp rebound is a positive sign. And according to history, it could be more than just that...

You see, massive one-day surges tend to happen near major market bottoms. These relief rallies create the "V-shaped recoveries" we usually see.

To see it, I looked at every 8%-plus one-day rise in the S&P 500 since 1950. We've only seen five examples over the past 75 years. But the returns that followed are worth a look...

We only have a few data points. But the numbers are impressive...

The S&P 500 climbed an average of 7.1% over six months and 26.1% over a year. That's massive outperformance versus the market's typical return.

But there's another piece of vital information in the data...

You see, the market was higher a year later 100% of the time. Investors never lost money buying after setups like this over a yearlong holding period. The catch is, you would have suffered plenty of volatility along the way...

These situations led to losses 60% of the time over three and six months. And those losses were mostly worse at three months than they were at the six-month mark.

This means we don't see these massive up days at the actual bottom. They tend to happen slightly before that point. Then, stocks drift lower again... hit a bottom... and then soar.

That hasn't happened so far this time around. Despite continued volatility, stocks have drifted higher... rising above the recent high we saw after the massive April 9 rally.

That tells me the overall bottom could have already taken place. And even if not, history says we can expect hefty gains from here if we're patient.

Plenty of folks are ready to throw in the towel on this bull market. But history says the worst could already be behind us. So instead of giving up, you should consider buying.

Good investing,

Brett Eversole