"The only reason to be bearish is... there is no reason to be bearish."
That was the headline of the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Fund Managers Survey in February.
The monthly survey asks roughly 200 investment pros what they see in the market. And according to them, there's no good reason not to bet on stocks.
That kind of blanket euphoria is what propels a stock market Melt Up. Folks see a one-way ride to profits. And they jump in with two feet.
Today, I'll share more about the euphoria I see in the markets, and what it means for you as the Melt Up continues...
Professional investors haven't changed their tune since February. The most recent Fund Managers Survey is out. And these folks are just as bullish today as they were back then.
As one example, cash holdings for these fund managers are near the lowest we've seen in the past decade.
For professional investors, holding cash is like a call option for lower prices. When they think the market is headed higher, holding cash only hurts them. And today, cash levels are incredibly low.
Cash levels were only lower earlier this year, at the depths of the COVID-19 bust, and in early 2013. So these folks are betting on more gains in stocks.
Similarly, a full 62% of these folks are overweight stocks right now. That's the second-highest reading since the data begins in 2002.
The takeaway from all of this is simple... Professional investors have entered a state of euphoria right now. And amateur investors are in the same boat.
The American Association of Individual Investors ("AAII") surveys its members each week. These folks are individuals, not fund managers. But they're equally bullish today.
A recent AAII survey showed that 57% of respondents were bullish on stocks. That's one of the highest readings we've seen over the past decade. Take a look...
Individual investors have only been more bullish twice in the last decade... in late 2014 and early 2018. And as the surge in stocks continues, we're likely headed to even more extreme readings.
This all paints a clear picture for the markets. Whether it's professional investors or individuals, everyone is bullish.
It's hard not to be in today's market. Just about everything is going up. Making money seems easy. So why not jump in and take advantage of it?
That euphoric and reckless mentality is what will propel the Melt Up to its final peak. But it's also a warning sign we want to be aware of.
These are not normal times. But the craziness gives us an opportunity to profit. You must take advantage of it while you can.
Good investing,
Steve
P.S. This euphoria has pushed the Melt Up in a new direction. It's a dramatic shift that you need to understand. And that's why I'm hosting a special event TONIGHT at 8 p.m. Eastern time. I'll share exactly what's happening, what it means for the Melt Up, and what you can do right now to take advantage of it.
The event is free to attend... But you must sign up here first. See you tonight.
Further Reading
"When an asset establishes a trend – either rising or falling – it tends to keep moving in the same direction," Ben Morris writes. Right now, Ben's indicators are showing that U.S. stocks are trending higher. And that means more upside ahead... Learn more here: Read This If You're Worried About U.S. Stocks Today.
Investors are overly optimistic today. Stocks are still hitting new all-time highs as a result. And while this can be a warning sign to sell, it's best to wait for one signal before getting out... Read more here: What This Massive Sentiment Shift Means for Investors.
You might not think about bonds much. But they're the backbone of global finance. And while rates are still low, companies rushing to issue bonds will need this unusual service...
THIS BANKING GIANT IS MORE PROOF OF AN ECONOMIC REBOUND
Today's chart shows strength in the U.S. economy...
We often look at America's "financial backbone" to get a sense of the economy's health. This includes some of the country's biggest banks, like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC). You see, when banks are thriving, it typically means our economy is, too. Take today's company, for example...
U.S. Bancorp (USB) is a banking behemoth with more than $550 billion in assets. It's the parent company of U.S. Bank, the fifth-largest commercial bank in the country. Right now, its performance shows us the economy is improving... In the first quarter, U.S. Bancorp's net charge-off ratio – which measures the amount of debt that's unlikely to be paid back to the company – was the lowest it has been in decades. This tells us that U.S. Bancorp's customers are having no problems making their payments...
As you can see, USB shares have roughly doubled from last year's lows. They also recently hit a new 52-week high. As the economy grows stronger, we should continue to see success in America's financial sector...
