Let This Investing Approach Guide You in the Next Big Shift

In a few short years, the NBA's Golden State Warriors became one of the most dominant forces in all of professional sports – after spending decades as a colossal failure.

Which begs the question, how did they do it? And what can we learn from it as investors?

Yesterday, I discussed what we can learn from their story... I shared how you can improve your investing results by capitalizing on your natural strengths, and relying on the right research to inform your decisions.

But today, I'll let you in on an even more important secret. It's the reason one set of particular investing strategies could see a big boost in the coming years... and you want to get positioned now.

Let me explain...

As I said yesterday, different investing techniques will get you closer to your individual goals.

If you have the patience and discipline, I'd suggest one set of tools in particular – one that's perfect for the next big shift in the markets...

You see, value stocks like health care and consumer brands have been underperforming growth stocks – like market darlings Amazon (AMZN) and Facebook (FB) – for years.

Take a look at the following table. It summarizes the average annual returns of the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Fund (IWF) and the iShares Russell 1000 Value Fund (IWD) over three different time frames. You can see how dramatically the growth fund has outperformed the value fund...

Eventually, the pendulum will swing back in favor of value stocks.

As my colleague Dan Ferris noted in a recent DailyWealth series, when the dot-com mania gave way to the eventual meltdown two decades ago, value beat growth by an incredible 32% annualized.

We're seeing early signs this setup might be about to happen again. And importantly, it may not take a large, radical change to set it off...

For instance, in the third quarter last year, tech darlings Apple (AAPL), Amazon, Facebook, and Google's parent company Alphabet (GOOGL) all reported actual revenue and/or guidance below Wall Street expectations. Together, these four stocks comprise about 32% of the Nasdaq 100 and 11% of the S&P 500.

When the market's leading stocks begin to falter at the same time, investors take notice and quickly reassess their forward growth expectations.

Take Amazon, for example... Between September and December, its share price declined roughly 35% as investors dialed back their growth expectations. According to my model, Amazon's implied revenue growth dropped from 26% per year to 17.5% per year.

Now, the difference between 26% and 17.5% might not sound like much. But compounded over a decade, it makes a huge difference in the present value of those distant future cash flows...

Amazon's stock has since rebounded about 25% from its bottom, though it's still nowhere near its September highs. But the main point I want to leave you with is this...

For a high-growth business like Amazon, forward expectations don't have to fall much for the stock to get crushed.

In the meantime, in our Extreme Value newsletter, Dan and I are finding value opportunities in high-quality names where growth expectations are far lower... like coffee chain Starbucks (SBUX).

Back in August, Starbucks' low-$50s share price implied near-zero growth for the next several years.

While the company isn't the growth story it once was, Dan and I believed this outlook was far too negative. After all, the company continues to open thousands of new stores across the U.S. and China and is likely to do so for several more years.

Following the release of better-than-expected financial results in October, SBUX shareholders quickly realized the same thing. Extreme Value subscribers are up about 35% in seven months, and shares are now above our maximum buy price.

Meanwhile, many stocks – and growth stocks in particular – are down 10%-plus over the same period. Amazon's shares, for example, are still down more than 15% over the past six months.

This is why our go-to strategy is to buy great names when they trade at dirt-cheap prices.

So if this approach makes sense to you, get ready. We believe you're about to see some great opportunities... And you'll be well-positioned to profit when value starts outperforming growth in the markets once again.

Good investing,

Mike Barrett

Editor's note: Mike and Dan have said this coming shift could kick off a "bonanza" for value investors. If they're right, it could mean dozens of chances to make triple-digit gains on great businesses trading for cheap – the kind of opportunities Extreme Value is designed to pinpoint. Plus, Dan's favorite investing idea today could absolutely soar over the long term... To learn how to access their research at a major discount, click here.

Further Reading

Yesterday, Mike used the Golden State Warriors example to illustrate how you need to re-evaluate your investing approach if you're not meeting your goals. Get the full details here: If You're Not Getting the Results You Want, Ask Yourself These Two Questions.

Mike recently explained three ways investors can improve their performance by sharing one investor's story of incredible gains – and losses – in the markets. Learn more here.

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Buying quality companies at good values is one way to grow long-term wealth. And this dominant medical-products company is a solid value today...

Market Notes


Today's chart shows a powerful way to invest in a booming sector...

According to the Pew Research Center, 95% of Americans have a cellphone, and more than 80% of them are data-intensive smartphones. As we rely on these devices, cellphone carriers rush to boost their network coverage. And that means big money for this business...

Crown Castle (CCI) is a $50 billion provider of wireless-communication infrastructure. It boasts more than 40,000 traditional cellphone towers, plus about 65,000 small-cell nodes that provide extra bandwidth in specific busy locations. All four of America's big cellphone carriers are Crown Castle customers... So it reaps the benefits, whichever one you choose. It's no wonder Crown Castle's profits jumped 117% in the most recent quarter, reaching $213 million.

As you can see, shares have risen almost 40% over the past two years, and they recently hit a new all-time high. As long as Americans keep demanding fast Internet access wherever they go, expect these gains to continue...