Normally, I'd recommend avoiding the kind of economic data I'm sharing today.
That's because on a daily basis, it has no real value for investors. The day-to-day changes usually don't reveal any hidden secrets for future stock price performance.
Today is different, though...
You see, a handful of leading economic indicators are back in an uptrend. The economy is getting better. And that makes this one of the rare times when economic indicators are worth understanding.
History shows that this new signal means you want to own stocks right now. We could see a double-digit rally in U.S. stocks over the next year.
Let me explain...
When it comes to economic indicators, it's hard to know what's important and what's not. For investors, what's important isn't finding a single piece of data you can use to your benefit.
Instead, you want to focus on the big picture. And when the trend in most indicators shifts, you need to take notice.
That's exactly what's happening today.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index ("LEI") for the U.S. tracks 10 economic indicators. When all of these indicators are showing signs of growth, this index moves higher.
The LEI covers things like unemployment, building permits for houses, and orders for manufacturing goods.
When it's in an uptrend – above its 10-month moving average – it's a sign that the economy is strengthening. And it's a sign that you want to own U.S. stocks.
For the first time since 2018, these leading indicators are trending higher. Check it out...
As you can see, the LEI (the black line) is moving higher again. And it just crossed above its 10-month moving average.
The economy is recovering. This leading indicator index proves it. And that means investors need to pay attention...
Since 1990, owning the S&P 500 when this index is in an uptrend has led to decent outperformance. Take a look at the table below...
Over the past 30 years, the typical annual return for the S&P 500 is 7.8%. But buying after an extreme like today's has yielded even better results...
Similar cases have led to 5% gains in six months and a solid 10% gain over the next year. The results are clear... We want to own stocks while the economic rebound continues.
This could lead to even higher highs in the S&P 500 in the coming months. And it's why, despite the worries you might have, you need to own stocks today.
Good investing,
Chris Igou
Further Reading
"Despite the recent pullback, U.S. stocks have soared since March," Chris writes. And investors are looking to buy into the sectors that have been left behind. But trying to "catch a falling knife" can lead to massive losses... Read more here: Don't Fall for This Suckers' Bet.
Steve believes the latest pullback will give way to even higher highs. It's a trend you'll want to take advantage of. And the side effects of Federal Reserve stimulus are showing us where to find the biggest gains... Get the full story in Steve's two-part essay here and here.
As the global economy rebounds, so will companies that have incredible assets. And while we wait for a full recovery, you can take advantage by buying this "Trophy Asset" at a huge discount today...
ANOTHER WINNER FROM THE CASHLESS-PAYMENTS TREND
Today we look at another company that's profited from the rise of cashless payments...
Buyers and sellers have been abandoning cash and switching to mobile payments for years. Not only are cashless payments convenient and secure, but they now also provide a safe and sanitary way for people to shop as the pandemic continues. Today's stock has risen – big time – as a result of this trend...
Square (SQ) is the electronic-payments company behind the little white card readers you've likely seen at stores and restaurants. Over the past few years, Square has expanded to offer a variety of software and hardware solutions. And its popular Cash App lets folks electronically send money to their friends and family instantly. In the second quarter, the amount of money stored in Cash App reached $1.7 billion... nearly four times more than in the same period last year.
As you can see in today's chart, SQ shares have rocketed an astounding 360% since bottoming in March, recently hitting a new high. And with more people and businesses going cashless, this growth should continue...
