A year ago, I put 40,000 acres of land in West Texas under contract.
My plan was to buy it with a couple of friends. I couldn't believe our good fortune...
Oil was incredibly cheap and hated at the time, which you know is exactly what I want to see. It was selling below $40 per barrel, or below the cost of production. Also, nobody was drilling for oil back then... The number of active oil rigs in the entire state of Texas had dropped to an all-time low of 100 in August 2020.
So I went to Texas looking for opportunity.
One bank (out of the many we talked to) said it would lend to us with no money out of our pockets, because the appraised value of the land was so much higher than the purchase price. The 40,000 acres were highly productive... They were home to producing oil wells, agriculture, livestock, contracts for solar power, and more.
The story isn't over yet. And it hasn't all been smooth sailing. Even so, our timing on the idea was perfect...
Oil has more than doubled in price since I was there. And the oil industry is starting to recover. The Texas rig count now stands at 264 rigs.
In short, that ranch land is worth far more today than it was a year ago. But as I'll share today, the opportunity in the oil market is far from over...
You might think that you missed out on the upside in this market...
You might think – with the Texas rig count going from 100 to 264 in just over a year, and with the price of oil doubling – that there's no money left to be made in oil and commodities.
I can see why you would think that. It makes sense. But before you throw in the towel, let me share a few key facts...
As recently as March 2020, Texas had more than 400 active oil rigs. And that was well below the state's roughly 900 active rigs in 2014.
Today's Texas rig count is a roughly 70% decline from those levels. With that as a frame of reference, you can see that you haven't missed this opportunity... not at all.
Look – this is what the start of a commodity-price run looks like. These booms can go on far longer (and soar far higher) than most people can imagine.
Meanwhile, investors don't care at all today about what has been happening in oil and commodities. I love it.
Bitcoin, tech stocks, real estate – investors love plenty of things right now. But oil is not one of them.
This incredible sentiment setup tells me the upside is nowhere near over. The oil boom is just beginning. That means we could easily see oil break above $100 a barrel in the coming months. And your window to profit is still wide open.
There are plenty of ways you can make the investment... whether it's oil producers, explorers, or even oil-services companies. With oil prices back above $80 a barrel today, they're all thriving. And they have a chance to soar much further if that boom continues.
I went to Texas to make a long-term bet, not a short-term trade. Things have gotten way better in the oil market over the last year... But I'm betting that's just the beginning. I urge you to do the same.
Good investing,
Steve
Further Reading
When an asset is taking off, it can feel like all the money has already been made. But history shows that buying into oil when it's in a strong uptrend is actually the right move to make.... Get the full story here: Oil Hits a Seven-Year High... With More Gains to Come.
After the pandemic decimated this industry, it's finally coming back to life. And with demand for its services booming today, that trend is likely to continue... Read more here: This Left-for-Dead Sector Is Hitting Its Stride.
With demand likely to outweigh supply in the oil and gas industry, we could see higher prices in the near future. And one sector could take off from here...
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